From Fantasy College Blitz

Jeffrey Boyer of FantasyQuants.com joins the team this year to give you a very unique approach to predicting NFL Fantasy production. Jeff bases his predictions and fantasy team upon Modern Portfolio Theory , commonly used for investing in stocks and bonds. Jeff brings his entire body of NFL analysis to our site starting now.

When evaluating Quarterbacks at FantasyQuants, we are truly attempting to find that one gem, that one diamond in the rough on whom we can sit during the draft. This lets us fill up other starting position players before we even address the solitary QB need.

Last season, 2007, we advised many players to wait on a QB like Brett Farve well into the draft. Farve rewarded our followers throwing for 4157 yards and 28 TDs last season, and in our 10 team expert showcase league he was drafted in the 12th round!

This season we are targeting a similar signal caller, one who spent the first few years of his career studying under Brett in Green Bay. You guessed it, QB Matt Hasselbeck.

Hasselbeck had a Brett Farve-like year in 2007 throwing for almost 4000 yards and notching 28 tds. Consistency is king in fantasy football and Hasselbeck brings this every week. Pencil him in for 250+ and 2 tds and feel safe about it, with some upside potential in those numbers as well. Current ADP numbers show Hasselbeck being drafted in the 8th round and assuming this holds, you have got yourself a steal!

Let us step away from the numbers for a moment. Critics might say last years production was a result of Seattle being forced to open up the offense after the injury / decline of RB Shaun Alexander. Perhaps, but lets also attribute some success to a WR core that finally came together for Hasselbeck. WRs Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, and Nate Burleson really matured in 2007 and offered Hasselbeck with a triplet of veteran consistent WRs. All 3 WRs are back this season, assuming Branch recovers from injury to contribute early on and we believe Seattle and their passing game are ready to roll as well. Don’t worry about the loss of DJ Hackett, the popular sleeper pick last year never produced they way some experts predicted.

Look at the data numbers though, we love them! Toss out Jake Delhomme (who only played 3 games last year) and Kurt Warner who looks to begin the season behind starter Matt Leinart once again, and we are left with Hasselbeck. Top Value Ratio number of 40.21 and second best Weighted number after Tony Romo at 3.04. Those are important and impressive, but let us concentrate on a third metric, VRM. VRM is a good measure of the degree of randomness expected in a players week-to-week scoring, the lower the better and it translates into consistency once again.

You should target Hasselbeck as our QB in round 6/7 of this years draft and in return you will be rewarded with a consistent top QB performer. With off-season additions in the backfield of Julius Jones, TJ Duckett, and rookie Justin Forsett Seattle to go along with their WR weapons, this offense should be ready to explode in a defensively soft NFC West.

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