Finally the moment we’ve all been waiting for. After a brief off-season and a quick two week warm-up session it is time for the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne, Australia. This year’s Australian Open seems to have as much hype going in as I can ever remember. Which of the “big four” will be able to survive seven grueling rounds of tennis in the scorching heat to emerge as champion? I think it’s safe to say there will be no surprise winner this year - although the Aussie Open has always been a place that has welcomed unlikely finalists. Since 1999 seven players have reached their first and only Grand Slam final in Australia. Let’s take a closer look at how the “big four” have faired with their placement in the draw and the pros and cons each one brings with them.

For the second time in a row, Rafael Nadal enters a Slam as the number one seed. I’m still not used to hearing it, but the Spaniard certainly deserves it after the phenomenal year he had in 2008. Hard court Slam success has continued to elude him, and I see no reason that would change here in Australia. While it was likely a good idea for Rafa to ease into the season, it doesn’t appear he has shaken off the rust from the nearly two month layoff. He dropped an exhibition match to Andy Murray in Abu Dhabi and then fell to Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals of Qatar. While I applaud his decision to avoid another tournament in the week leading up to the Open, it just doesn’t appear he is in game shape.

There are numerous threats in his quarter of the draw including Gasquet, Hewitt, Gonzalez, Ancic and Gilles Simon who defeated him in the Tennis Master Cup to conclude 2008. Should he advance to the semi-finals - which I believe is unlikely - he could face Andy Murray or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Speaking of his chances heading into the open also didn’t inspire me with confidence.

“I think I am OK,” Nadal said, “But I was for two months outside of competition, so maybe I need a little bit more matches to get the rhythm.”

At the moment, all the hype seems to be focused on Andy Murray, who has started 2009 with a bang. He won the exhibition tourney in Abu Dhabi defeating Nadal and Federer back to back, and then triumphed in Qatar by again knocking off Federer and then Roddick in the final. He has now had a week to recover and fine-tune his preparation for the first Slam he enters as perhaps the favorite. Murray has all the talent and recent results to inspire confidence for a deep run in Melbourne. How he handles the new pressure and expectations will be the determining factor. Nerves played a part in his straight set loss to Federer at the U.S. Open in August and may again cause him trouble here. It could be similar to a young Andre Agassi who had all the talent in the world but needed a few Slam final defeats before he learned to handle the pressure of those big moments. Murray also has a tough section of the draw with young Kei Nishikori, Radek Stepanek and Tsonga who defeated him early in this very tournament a year ago.

In the bottom half is where we can find defending champion Novak Djokovic. Still figuring out his new Head racquet and perhaps not as prepared physically as he should be, Djokovic is more than capable of repeating and yet doesn’t seem to be in the right state of mind to do so. He might still be adjusting to the new-found fame and success, and I feel as though his attitude has changed since his victory last January and not necessarily for the better. Early season losses to the likes of Ernests Gulbis and Jarkko Nieminen also do not bode well for him. Of the “big four” however, Djokovic has the easiest path to the quarters. I somehow don’t see Paul-Henri Mathieu or Robin Soderling taking him out early. A potential quarter-final with David Nalbandian who just won in Sydney, or Andy Roddick could produce an entertaining match.

Let’s not forget world number two, Roger Federer who is also in the bottom half of the draw. So far every preview I’ve read has mentioned the “tough” draw Federer has in front of him, but I just don’t see it. An opener against Andreas Seppi and veteran Carlos Moya in the second round doesn’t sound too bad at all if I’m Roger. Marat Safin is not the Safin of old, not does he seem to care to be. Federer also easily dispatched countryman Stan Wawrinka in the Kooyong finals, so don’t expect much resistance there if the two should meet up in the round of sixteen. His earliest challenge may come from a youngster such as Marin Cilic or Juan Martin del Potro in the quarters, but to-date neither one has managed to take a set off of him. Illness free this time around, expect Federer to give a gallant effort as he tries to match the Pete Sampras all-time Grand Slam record of 14. I’ll end off with a quote from this past week from Roger that might give his opponents something to consider.

“I always feel at the end of the day, I’m going to play well in the Slam and it’s going to take an incredible performance from somebody else to beat me. It’s exactly the same again this year.”

Here’s hoping we see several incredible performances as the first Slam begins.